Phil Town on Pricing Stocks

December 6th, 2009

There is an enormous difference between traders and Phil Town investors. Trading depends on maybe. Phil Town Rule #1 investing depends on certainty.

Traders are primarily interested in stocks that MAY move in the correct direction for varied reasons, most of which have something to do with momentum. The price range of the stock is a part of a trader’s decision process because traders depend on Institutional Investors to create momentum. Institutional Investors, by their sheer size, need a certain size business and a certain volume of trading to be able to invest in that stock. Stocks that are under $10 don’t often fit those criteria and therefore often do not have a high percentage of Institutional money.

Phil Town investors are primarily concerned with finding a business that is undervalued because that means that its price is CERTAIN to move in the correct direction — because the market will always price a business correctly eventually. The stock price tells you nothing about whether the price is above the value or below it. A $5 stock could be vastly vastly overvalued. A $100 stock could be vastly undervalued. An investor can’t tell anything from the stock price.

I repeat: there is nothing about a $10 stock that says that it is cheap or expensive. You can not tell anything about value from the price of the stock.

We hope that helps you understand why Phil Town investors do the 4M’s – so that we can decide IF the business is predictable enough to be able to figure out the value and, if it is, what the Sticker Price and MOS Price are.

Do your homework and you just might find a wonderful business at an attractive price that you can buy BEFORE it lands on IBD’s list of stocks to buy. Then you can let the traders drive it to the moon so you can sell it to them for WAY too much money!

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Retirement Funds off limits

November 16th, 2009

People who are retired or semi-retired are always asking Phil Town if they should dip into their retirement to try Rule #1 investing. They want more to live off and what they have isn’t quite enough. Here’s what Phil Town has been telling them:

Never withdraw from the money you want to retire on until you can do so — retire on it — for the rest of your life.  I’ve made every mistake in the book and that is one of the worst.  It’s like eating your seed corn back in the old days – gets you through the winter and then you are screwed.  So unless you aren’t going to starve somehow, don’t touch that hard earned money.

But what to do? First, realize that you are going to need to get a job.  Which sucks because you are probably going to hate the job.Second, since you are going to hate the job, you better learn how to invest your money from it so you can build your pile and then quit.

Here’s the good news:  With, say, $600,000 in retirement money earning 15% a year, you’ll have $90,000 pretax to live on.  Not bad.  But if you can keep the belt tight and live on the money your new job gives you, assuming you can do all this in a retirement account, you will have $1.2 million in 5 years.  That will give you $180,000 a year pre tax.

Five years.  You’ll know The Rule #1 well by then and be totally confident that you can start to eat the crop because you never have to touch the seed corn.  And you can play golf wherever you want says Phil Town.

People who are retired or semi-retired are always asking me if they should dip into their retirement to try Rule #1 style investing. They want more to live off and what they have isn’t quite enough. Here’s what I’ve been telling them:
Never withdraw from the money you want to retire on until you can do so — retire on it — for the rest of your life.  I’ve made every mistake in the book and that is one of the worst.  It’s like eating your seed corn back in the old days – gets you through the winter and then you are screwed.  So unless you aren’t going to starve somehow, don’t touch that hard earned money.
But what to do? First, realize that you are going to need to get a job.  Which sucks because you are probably going to hate the job.
Second, since you are going to hate the job, you better learn how to invest your money from it so you can build your pile and then quit.
Here’s the good news:  With, say, $600,000 in retirement money earning 15% a year, you’ll have $90,000 pretax to live on.  Not bad.  But if you can keep the belt tight and live on the money your new job gives you, assuming you can do all this in a retirement account, you will have $1.2 million in 5 years.  That will give you $180,000 a year pre tax.
Five years.  You’ll know The Rule well by then and be totally confident that you can start to eat the crop because you never have to touch the seed corn.  And you can play golf wherever you w

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Phil Town-Rule of 72

November 15th, 2009

If you haven’t been through Phil Town’s explanation of the Rule of 72 before, here’s how:

  1. Just take the oldest equity (or book value per share) number and see how many doubles of that number you can do before you exceed the latest (most recent) number.
  2. Let’s say you have ten years of equity numbers and you can double the oldest number three times.
  3. Divide the number of doubles into the number of years minus one (so if you are looking at 10 years, divide 3 into 9).  That gives you the number of years for one double.
  4. Divide that number, in this case 3, into 72. You get 24. That’s 24% growth rate for equity.
  5. Now check the analysts’ estimated growth rate and see if it’s higher or lower than what you got.  If it’s lower use their number.  If it’s higher use the equity growth rate you figured out. Always use the lower equity growth rate number.
  6. Now get the current earnings per share and grow that at, in this case, 24% for the next  ten years.  In this case that will give us 3 doubles.  If the EPS is $1, the future EPS is $8 (3 doubles is 1 to 2, 2 to 4, 4 to 8).
  7. Now get the historical PE and use whichever is less - the historical PE or 2x your  growth rate.  In this case if the historical PE is less than 48 (2 x 24, which is our growth rate) I’ll use that.  Let’s say it’s 30. 30 x 8 (future EPS) is $240…. the future stock price.
  8. Divide future stock price ($240) by 4 and you get the Sticker or current value of the businessif all goes well.  In this case, $60.
  9. That means our margin of safety (MOS) is $30 - half of the Sticker price.

If the ROIC and Equity growth rates are high enough, consistent and holding or growing, and if the stock price is less than the MOS price, I’m (a) impressed at the recommender and (b) interested enought to dig deeper and start looking at the Moat, the Meaning, the Management, all of which take time that I don’t want to spend if these people are recommending either unpredictable or overvalued businesses for me to buy.

This is a very quick and dirty way to get a reading on the intelligence of the people who are doing the investing recommending.  The only problem is that after you do this a few times you’ll realize that most of the brokers, TV pundits and junk mail soliciters are totally clueless.

They have about as much business recommending businesses to buy as you or I would have recommending which lottery number is going to come up this week.  That means that you are on your own.  Scary thought.  But better to know what’s really going on than to live in a fiscal fantasy and wake up in a financial nightmare, don’t you think?

If, on the other hand, you are getting recommendations that turn out to be wonderful businesses at attractive prices, Phil Town says, tell me who these guys are, too!

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Lessons from past storms

November 15th, 2009

Phil Town gave a speech to about 15,000 people in New Orleans just after Katrina hit in the arena next to the Super Dome.  I stayed in the Hyatt Regency – the tall hotel with no more windows.  I walked through the Quarter to eat in a couple of world class restaurants.  Phil played some Texas Hold’em in the casino and enjoyed meeting some of the good old boys from around there who seemed to be having a nice time taking my money.

The city was full of people  who we’re thinking the decision through of whether to rebuild or not, and most of them had  to decide to go back in and do it all over again.  God bless them. New Orleans has a blend of cultures that flavors the food, the music and the life like nowhere else in the world.  It is a great city and has come along nicely since Katrina.

Remembering the rescues and learning the lessons should remind us all of something:  People who do not have many investments are so much more at risk when things go wrong.

New Orleans was a reminder to Phil Town that we must teach everyone how to take care of themselves and their families without depending on the government to bail them out.  If Phil Town can teach people how to save money in a way that could save their lives in an emergency, maybe the next time a hundred year storm blows in more people will have the resources to get out of the way — and those who don’t will be fewer, and more easily aided before the storm hits.

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Step One is to Get out of Debt.

November 10th, 2009

Traveling and speaking at investing seminars introduces me to a lot of investors, many of whom have the same question:

“Hey  Phil Town, If I have significant debt, should I pay it off first before getting started in investing?”

Here’s what Phil Town has been telling them: One of the great advantages of being in the military a long time ago is that I don’t get too worked up about the little things that go wrong in my life now.  Once you’ve been shot at, everything else seems relatively minor.  So the first thing I can tell you about having too much debt is to keep it in perspective.  Nobody died, we’re still healthy, we’re still in the game.

Having said that, its still hard to shake the pressure that debt puts on you.  It’s like you’re on a tread mill and no matter how fast you run, you get nowhere.  So to fix this we’ve got to get better training and we’ve got to do stuff different.

First some Phil Town training:  I want you to read Automatic Millionaire by David Bach.  Based on what you learn, make a plan and stick to it.  Keep the goal in mind and in a couple of years (or maybe 5 or so, doesn’t matter) you will be both debt free and you will have money to invest.  And you’ll have one more incredible gift to yourself if you follow what I tell you next.

Now to the Phil Town big question people ask after hearing me speak: Should they pay for investing tools when they’re loaded up with debt?  Like the cool African in Gladiator said at the end, “Not yet, my friend, not yet.”

Usually a lot of debt means you are paying top interest rates – maybe higher than 18% a year.  Remember that our target for our return on invested money is 15%.  And do you remember Rule #1Rule #1 in this case would tell you that if you are paying 18% and making 15% you are not playing by the Rule #1.

In fact, to justify borrowing for Phil Town investing, we have to apply the Margin of Safety criteria but times 2.  So if our investment is likely to give us a 16% return, the most we can pay for debt is 4%.  If you can borrow at 4% and invest with Rule #1 certainty then sure.  But you can’t have certainty in your first investments because you are just learning.  Therefore, I’d say for almost everyone who has debt problems you should pay off the credit card debt first.

Meanwhile, while you are paying off the debt, you are going to be banking the most important thing you can bank: investing experience.  I would recommend this whether you have debt or not: if you are a just starting Rule#1 type investing, then I want you to paper trade $100,000 until you know you know what you are doing.  It might take you 2 months.  It might take you two years.  But that’s okay because you are banking experience.  And meanwhile, you are getting rid of the debt.

And here’s a Phil Town secret to getting rich fast: Use other people’s money.  Big secret, huh?!  Okay so it isn’t.  The secret lies in GETTING other people’s money.  And here’s the secret to that secret: Build a great track record as an investor, even by paper trading and the money will seek you out.  Investors are always looking for someone to put money with who has a good track record.

So whaddya gonna do?

1) You’re going to read Bach.

2) You’re going to pay down debt.

Meanwhile you’re going to study Phil Town (on this site and then in my book) and start building a track record by paper trading.  And then, in a couple of years, you’ll start with a little saved money to practice for real.  Then you are going to attract investment capital (which I’ll show you how to do later) and in 10 years you are going to be a millionaire.

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No Recommending Stocks

November 9th, 2009

Phil Town often gets asked to recommend stocks.  I’ll be posting about things that I buy or sell, or don’t, so you can see how it all works, but I won’t be recommending stocks here or anywhere else simply because recommending stocks goes against my Rule #1 philosophy.

Rule #1 is about owning a business, not investing in stocks. Owning a business is an intimate expression of individual values, knowledge and understanding. It is a very personal reflection of who you are as a person. When you own a business, the management of that business represents you to the rest of us. So do all of your employees, including how your business treats your employees. So do all of your products including how your business treats your customers and the world we live in.

You can pretend that there is a wall that protects you from what your business does in and to the world, but there isn’t. What goes round comes round. Karma. Do unto others…. Reap what you sow. However you want to say it, you can not avoid the responsibility of ownership. If you are the owner of a company which is damaging the earth in a short-sighted attempt to rake in the money with the objective of leaving the clean-up to the next generation, then what does that say about you as a person? If your business hires a manufacturing facility that employs slave labor, do you really think you can escape the karma? If your business sells irresponsible products to irresponsible people, you own the results of that just as if you owned the entire business. You don’t get to escape just because you own a few shares. And by the same logic, if your business is doing great things for all the stakeholders – customers, management, owners, employees and vendors – that accrues to you as well.

By the way, if you own bad stuff, don’t blame Capitalism. Capitalism has its flaws but one of the most ignorant criticisms of Capitalism is that Capitalists hold the dollar to be the ultimate value. That may be true but only in the sense of a dollar earned. If you choose to own a business run by amoral managers who see no harm in fleecing the customers, abusing their employees and contracting with immoral and unethical suppliers then your dollars are not earned, they are stolen and that is on you, not on Capitalism. Chances are that same management team that figured out how to rip off the customer is finding a way to rip you, the owner, off as well. You do a deal with the devil, don’t be surprised if you get burned.

All of this just to tell you that you must decide for yourself. I can’t do it for you. And you can’t copy what I do. I’m not you. I don’t know what you know and what you value. Look at how different my choices are from Warren Buffett’s. I bought businesses that do managment software, internet search engines, bioscience, natural foods, beer and wine and ethical drugs because I understand them and I’m proud of my teams and products. I like what these businesses are doing to and for the world. I don’t necessarily buy the same businesses as Warren Buffett. He owns or has owned (among others) soft drinks, burgers, tobacco, beer, furniture, diamonds, jets, mobile homes, advertising and a newspaper. But he feels the same way about his companies and products and the folks that work there as I do – in a word -proud.

I’m not going to give you recommendations because buying based on someone else’s recommendation is stock picking. I don’t do stock picking and neither should you. I own businesses that I am proud of. And so should you. To be proud of your business, you must understand it. Only you know what you understand. And therein lies the strength of Rule #1.  Buy what I understand and you are gambling. Buy what Phil Town wants you to understand is to buy it at a good price. And you are certain to make money.

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MSNBC recent Tour by RULE #1 Investing

November 6th, 2009
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Phil Town on using RULE #1 Spreadsheets

November 6th, 2009

Phil Town is getting a lot of questions about where to find the numbers used in the Excel formulas here on the RULE #1 blog, so here’s the info, for those who are practicing. Most of this is in my RULE #1 book.

Estimated growth rate: The best proxy for the future growth of value of any business is the equity or book value growth rate.  You can find that on MSN Money by going to Key Ratios (under Research: Financial Results in the sidebar), clicking on “Ten Years” and calculating the book value per share rate of growth with the =FV() formula.

Let’s say you get 18% over the last ten years.  Verify that growth rate by looking at “Statement” (also under Financial Results), “ten years” (in the pull-down menu) and calculating the growth of EPS for the last ten years. Let’s say EPS have grown at 19%.  Then look at “earnings estimates” to find the analysts’ projections of future earnings.  Let’s say they are predicting 16% per year rate of earnings growth.  To get the estimated earnings growth rate, take the lower of the three numbers, in this case 16%.

Future PE: Once you’ve decided on an EPS growth rate, in this case 16%, you are ready to decide the PE to apply to it to get the stock value in the future.  You double the estimated growth rate.  In this case, that would be a PE of 32.  Then you look at the historical PE.  On MSN you look at “key ratios,” “price ratios” and you’ll get the average PE for the last ten years.  Let’s say it’s 45.  You would use the lower of the two numbers, in this case, 32, as the Future PE.

Determining Future Value: Take the current Trailing Twelve Months EPS, do an =FV() and use the estimated EPS growth rate as the pv value.  That gives you the EPS in ten years.  Multiply that by the Future PE to get the Future Value.

Determining the Sticker Price: Use the =PV() formula and put in 15% as our minimum rate of return into the RATE spot, take the Future Value for fv and you’ll get the Sticker – the price we can buy at that will give us a 15% return.

MOS: divide the Sticker by 2 to get our buy-in price.

Hope that helps y’all.

Phil Town Rule 1

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